The 3K Hit Club: A look at its newest (and future?) members

               Somewhere in the next week or so, Alex Rodriguez will become the 29 member of the Three-thousand-hit club, becoming the newest member since Derek Jeters arrival at the mark nearly four years (that long, yeesh!) ago in 2011. With this milestone fast approaching, perhaps now is a good time as any to think forward project not only Alex’s final hit mark, but who will be joining A-Rod in this coveted list of hitters.

Alex Rodriguez (2,991 hits as of June 8) Passing another milestone in a rather rocky career

           Despite the controversy, the hatred, and yes, the numerous suspensions, A-Rod has continued to deliver at the plate year in, year out. And while people sadly sighed when he passed Willie Mays for the sixth place on the career Home Run list with 661, few have seen his surpassing of the three-thousand mark as a milestone worth observing and recognizing. Perhaps this is because the bubble has already been burst with the attainment of that mark by Rafael Palmeiro in 2005.

But maybe we should look at these two players in a different light; considering that while PED’s give you a slight edge in hitting a ball farther (or in the case of A-Rod WAY Farther), they can’t give you the skills you need to successfully hit a 93 MPH slider through the gap for a clean safety. Hits are hits, in other words. So while A-Rod’s ‘real’ home run total should be debated every time he makes a trip to Cooperstown (maybe they should at least let him in on an all-day senior pass if he visits) lets appreciate his reaching of this mark as less tainted by fraud than most other records he will certainly pass before his career ends.

               As to where he’ll end up on the list when all is said and done? No one can really be sure. His production this year certainly dispels any notion that a years (forced anyway) semi-retirement has diminished his skills at the plate at any rate. If his decline is kept at an absolute minimum, there could be a real possibility in him approaching and possibly lapping fellow Yankee Derek Jeter (3,465 hits; Sixth all time), but only time will tell. For now, A-Rod is looking to likely reach and possibly pass the only inactive member of the list in Rickey Henderson by the end of this historic year for the bruised slugger. Only time will tell. 

                Ichiro Suzuki: (2,878 hits as of June 8) Biding (or fighting) for time

                Things have not come easy for the light hitting outfielder these last two seasons, as his production (and thus his playing time) have quickly diminished. 2014 marked the very first time in Ichiro’s American career that he did not qualify for the batting title, instead settling as a late game pinch hitter and defensive substitution in the outfield for the Yankees.

                With his signing with the Marlins (for one-year; five million dollars), Ichiro has effectively acknowledged his role as the fourth outfielder in a team loaded with young slugging outfielders. Under these circumstances, Ichiro is on pace to have the lowest playing time in his fourteen years of major league service.

                For a man on the hunt for three thousand hits, this means that he faces a much more daunting climb to the mark than the next likeliest player on our list. Still, the Marlins might suffer some serious long term injuries and setbacks at the corner outfield position. Christian Yelich is still very vulnerable at the moment, batting .222/.287/.285 through this season; and Giancarlo Stanton, while providing pop is still whiffing for a pallid .230/.318/.531.

The Marlins may also decide to cash in on the celebration of the achievement (perhaps by moving his to another position in the infield?) and have him play out the season should their playoff dreams soon fall out of reach. Regardless, considering Ichiro’s current playing time and batting performance (both better than Yelich and Stanton; at.279/.331/.410), he looks set to roll the number dial over sometime early next season.

While it’s likely that he’ll get three-thousand major league hits, once he passes that number, his days as an ball player will be preciously numbered. Nearing nearly 4,100 hits by adding his American and Japanese careers combined, he’ll likely shut it down sometime after passing the magic 4,256 hit mark; buttressing his already strong resume for the Hall of Fame, both in Japan and in Cooperstown as well.

Adrian Beltre (2,657 hits as of June 8) The 'Omega Man' just keeps Rolling along

Mr. Beltre as of this writing is on the DL with a sprain on his left thumb, likely sidelining him for most of this month. Still, this will be a rather short bump in the road as he tries to join a group of only seventeen Halls of famers to primary man the hot corner. The headline on that calling card will most certainly be his three-thousand plus hits, likely to occur somewhere early in the 2018 season if he plays healthy and proficiently enough. He’ll likely become the fifth third baseman to achieve that mark, joining the likes of Brett, Molitor, and Ripken Jr., hallmarking a career studded with offensive and defensive consistency, many highlight gems, as well as some funny lighter moments in the game (got cup Adrian? Need I say more?).

All kidding aside however, his consistency will also likely net him 450+ home runs, 1,500 Runs and RBI, and over 5,000 total bases, all with a 110 OPS+ and lifetime .280/.330/.460-ish slash line (assuming some natural regression due to age). Considering he began his playing time in 1998 as the youngest player in baseball at the time, I think I wouldn’t be a stretch to see him crack the list of some of the oldest ballplayers in the next half decade or so. Predicting his final hit total makes it difficult as he’s still a season out. For now, it seems safe to say he’ll land somewhere over 2,700 hits this year. Well on his way to become member number thirty of the Three thousand hit club.

While there are numerous players today that have an inside track on 3,000 hits, injuries and other setbacks make realistic predictions beyond these three players more conjecture than an educated guess. While the next man in line may be pretty controversial among baseball circles, the club itself is still something we can all appreciate. If you want to see a montage of players getting hit number 3000 you can find it here. Enjoy!